Industry Report Q1 2026: Gastronomy & Hospitality in Germany – Figures, Trends and Outlook

The first quarter of 2026 was marked by a widening gap between overnight stay demand and actual revenues. While tourism grew moderately, inflation eroded the actual earnings of businesses—marking the sixth consecutive year of losses for the hospitality industry.

1. Macroeconomic indicators (January 2026)

According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), a total of 25.5 million overnight stays were registered in Germany in January 2026 – an increase of 1.2% compared to the same month of the previous year. Domestic guests rose by 1.3% to 21.2 million, while international guests increased by 1.0% to 4.3 million.

Despite rising prices, real hospitality revenue fell by 5.0% in January 2026 compared to the same month of the previous year, while nominal revenue increased by 2.0%. Compared to the pre-crisis year of 2020, the real revenue loss amounts to -19.2%.

2. Gastronomy vs. Hotel Industry: Two Speeds

The hospitality industry recorded a real revenue decline of 5.9% in January 2026 (nominal +2.4%). Labor costs increased by 34%, food costs by 27%, and energy costs by 28% since 2022. Hotels saw a real decline of 2.8% (nominal +1.4%), with the MICE sector providing support.

3. DEHOGA sentiment & stress factors

19.3% good, 43% satisfactory, 26% poor. Top burdens: personnel costs 75.2%, bureaucracy 67%, energy 65.7%. 72.1% have been unable to invest since 2022.

4th wave of insolvencies: 2,905 restaurant bankruptcies in 2025

Over 11,200 restaurant and bar insolvencies since 2020, plus 69,000 quiet closures. 108 insolvencies per 10,000 businesses – the second-highest rate in any sector (Destatis). Experts expect a further increase in 2026.

5. Serviced Apartments: 18% investment volume, 90% occupancy rate

Transaction volume Q1 2026: €163 million (Savills). Hotels 80%, serviced apartments 18%. Limehome: 90% occupancy, 25% operating costs. Market grows from USD 2.8 billion to USD 5.1 billion by 2033.

Conclusion: A two-speed market

While the hotel industry is generating volume growth, the restaurant sector is struggling with its sixth year of real losses. The VAT reduction to 7% provides some relief, but is offset by rising costs. For investors, serviced apartments offer the best prospects.

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Sources: Destatis, DEHOGA Bundesverband, Creditreform, Savills Deutschland, mrp hotels, CBRE Germany.