Official 2025 annual review: German gastronomy fell 2.2% in real terms — the third consecutive annual decline. The real gap to 2019 widens to approximately −18.7%. Around 2,900 gastronomy insolvencies — highest level since 2011. Meanwhile the hotel investment market rebounds with €1.66–1.9 billion in transaction volume at a stable prime yield of 5.25%.
Executive Summary
2025 was the third consecutive year of real revenue decline for German gastronomy. The hospitality sector fell 2.1% in real terms vs. 2024 (nominal +1.4%); gastronomy specifically declined 2.2% (nominal +1.8%). The real gap to 2019 continues to widen: hospitality overall approximately −14.9%; gastronomy approximately −18.7%.
The paradox of 2025: Germany's tourism sector hit a record high for overnight stays — yet even the accommodation sector lost real revenue, while gastronomy continued to shrink. Consumer restraint at the table ("fewer aperitifs, fewer desserts, less wine" — Creditreform) met a cost structure that, according to DEHOGA, has risen by up to 40% since 2022.
Six Years in Four Phases
Phase 1 – Pandemic crash (2020/2021): Real revenues fell 39.0% in 2020, reaching −40.3% vs. 2019 by 2021.
Phase 2 – Reopening boom (2022): +45.4% real, driven by accommodation (+63.8%); yet a 12.5% gap to 2019 remained.
Phase 3 – Inflation year (2023): Nominal +8.5%, real only +1.1%, driven entirely by Q1 (+15.9%).
Phase 4 – Consumer crisis (since 2024): Real revenues fell again in 2024 (−2.6%) and 2025 (−2.1%).
The gap between hotels and gastronomy
Accommodation came within approximately 5% of 2019 levels in 2025. Gastronomy drifts further away each year: from approximately −13.6% (2023) to −16.9% (2024) to approximately −18.7% (2025). The gap of approximately 25 percentage points between nominal and real revenues since 2019 is the price illusion that must not go uncorrected in any lease or purchase price derivation.
Insolvencies 2025: peak of market consolidation
Approximately 2,900 gastronomy insolvencies (+29.6%) — the highest level since 2011, ranking 2nd among all industries with 108 insolvencies per 10,000 businesses. For every insolvency, roughly six silent closures occurred — totalling over 11,200 insolvencies and nearly 69,000 business closures since 2020.
Hotel investment market recovery
The hotel investment market rebounded in 2025: €1.66–1.9 billion in transaction volume (+19–40% depending on data source) with stable prime yields of approximately 5.25%. Capital is returning — selectively and with earnings-based discipline.
For gastronomy property owners, the combination of record market consolidation, ongoing cost pressure, and structural change creates both challenges and opportunities. Buyers and expansion-minded operators find increasing room to negotiate; sellers need earnings-based price derivation and discreet marketing.