Gastronomy Half-Year Balance 2026: Preliminary Analysis
AGI projection based on preliminary Destatis monthly data (Jan–May 2026): German gastronomy faces a real revenue decline of 6–7% in H1 2026 vs H1 2025 – the weakest half-year result since the 2020/21 lockdowns. Corporate insolvencies in Q2 2026 at highest level since 2005.
What the data through May 2026 shows
All five published months of 2026 show real declines, with accelerating momentum: January −5.9%, February −6.2%, March −5.7%, April −7.4%, May −7.1% (gastronomy, price-adjusted vs. prior year). This is happening despite the permanently reduced 7% VAT on food in effect since January 1, 2026 — indicating genuine volume losses, not a statistical artefact.
The H1 2026 projection
If June 2026 follows the pattern of the first five months, the gastronomy sector faces a real revenue decline of approximately 6–7% in H1 2026 vs H1 2025 — making it the weakest half-year result since the 2020/21 lockdowns, and the third consecutive negative half-year. Nominal revenues may grow by only 1–1.5%, insufficient to offset rising costs.
Implications for owners, lessors and investors
Supply pressure for gastronomy and succession properties will increase further in H2 2026. The insolvency and closure wave is running behind the revenue trend — as history shows, it follows with a lag.
Those looking to sell or lease should enter the market now with a realistic, earnings-based valuation. Those looking to buy or expand will find increasing room to negotiate — an assessment the full report develops in detail.