German Gastronomy Half-Year Balance H1-2025
Factual report on the state of German gastronomy in H1 2025: revenues in real decline despite VAT reduction, pub closures −24% since 2019, labour shortages and energy costs continue to weigh on margins.
Revenue development H1-2025: Real decline despite VAT reduction
After a January gain (+2.7% real), revenues fell in February (−1.7%), March (−1.3%), April (−1.0%), and May (−4.0% vs. May 2024). The permanent reduction of VAT on food to 7% from January 2025 provided none of the expected tailwind.
Labour market: structural skills shortage
The Federal Employment Agency reported approximately 33,000 open positions in hospitality in 2024. The statistical decline in the skills shortage indicator in 2024/25 reflects reduced demand — operators cutting hours — not improved supply.
Structural change: pub closures accelerating
The number of pubs and bars has fallen by −24% since 2019, with the decline accelerating. Most affected: small-town locations without sufficient catchment areas.
Implications for owners and investors
The combination of real revenue declines, rising costs, and structural change increases pressure on many operators. For owners of gastronomy properties, this means higher supply pressure but also selective demand for well-positioned, high-quality locations.